Household daily-peak electricity load forecasting with statistical models

This article proposes to obtain a statistical model of the daily peak electricity load of a household located in Austin-TX,USA. The Box-Jenkins methodology was followed to obtain the best fit for the time-series. Four models provided a good fit: ARIMA(0,1,2), ARIMA(1,1,2), SARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1) and SARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1). The model with the highest Akaike Information Criteria was the ARIMA(1,2,2). However, the model with the highest forecast accuracy was the SARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1), which obtained an RMSE of 0.296 and a MAPE Of 15.00.